The imminent threat of Coronavirus in Tunisia

Much like the governments of other countries, the Tunisian government was hesitant in taking drastic measures to stop the spread of the disease. To its credit, it acted faster than some other countries, though some actions such as closing air and maritime routes with Italy should have been taken much sooner. My observations below are based on collecting public data applied to the specific context in Tunisia, and using some of my training as a data scientist and predictive modeler. Below I’ve provided graphics, data, and alternative models in response to some pressing questions.

A predictive model for the outcome of the 2014 Tunisian presidential Elections

The model has three major steps to get the final forecast. First, we try to aggregate all available surveys and opinion polls, which will be weighted according to the credibility of the survey. Then we distribute the undecided votes among the various presidential candidates. There have been 45 presidential polls since elections in October 2011 with the majority of studies conducted by 3C surveys Sigma Council Emhord Consulting and the International Republican Institute. The evaluation criteria surveys are: (1) the sample size or number of respondents, (2) the date of the survey, and (3) the reliability of the organization or institution that led the survey.


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